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Page 11 - The Indian EYE 052226
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    OPINION                                                                   MAY 22, 2026     |  The Indian Eye 11

            modern nuclear warheads are made                                                                          It should be noted that no ma-
            compact  and  lightweight.  Together,                                                                 jor authentic details about an Agni-
            these  platforms  form  the  nuclear                                                                  6  programme  are  available  in  the
            triad. A credible nuclear triad rests                                                                 public  domain.  However,  there  are
            on  three  pillars:  strategic  bombers                                                               occasional  indications  that  such  a
            for  aerial  delivery;  long-range  or                                                                system  may  be under development.
            CBMs  for  land-based  deterrence;                                                                    However, testing of such a missile is
            and  submarine-launched  ballistic                                                                    yet to happen.  Possibly, several geo-
            missiles (SLBMs) for survivable sec-                                                                  political  and  strategic  factors  could
            ond-strike capability.                                                                                be influencing India’s decision not to
                MIRV technology is part of the                                                                    test such a system at this stage.
            land-based  missile  component  of                                                                        India  follows  a  credible  mini-
            this triad. By enabling a single mis-                                                                 mum  deterrence  doctrine  as  a  part
            sile to carry multiple independently                                                                  of  its  nuclear  posture.  Under  this
            targetable warheads, MIRVs signifi-                                                                   framework, the primary objective is
            cantly increase strike flexibility, pen-                                                              to ensure survivability and a reliable
            etration  capability,  and  deterrence                                                                second-strike capability.
            value.
                The integration of MIRV capa-                                                                     Since  the Agni-5 already  pro-
            bility  into  the  Agni-5  programme
            demonstrates   India’s  transition                                                                    vides intercontinental reach,
            towards  more  advanced  and  sur-                                                                    the introduction or testing of a
            vivable  strategic  systems,  placing
            it  among  a  select  group  of  nations                                                              further extended-range system
            with  sophisticated  nuclear  delivery                                                                like Agni-6 would not funda-
            technologies.
                The  successful  integration  of                                                                  mentally alter the existing de-
            MIRV  technology  into  the  Agni-5                                                                   terrence balance. Hence, there
            is  a  major  achievement  of  decades
            of efforts under India’s Agni missile                                                                 is no operational urgency for
            programme.  There  is  a  long  histo-                                                                testing systems like Agni-6.
            ry  of  Indian  establishment  making
            inroads in the missile domain. The                                                                        Large-scale  missile  testing  car-
            Government of India approved the                                                                      ries  significant  strategic  signalling
            establishment  of  the  Integrated                                                                    consequences. Any test by India of a
            Guided  Missile  Development  Pro-                                                                    new ICBM with a 10,000 km range
            gramme (IGMDP) on 26 July 1983.                                                                       could have been interpreted as esca-
                The Agni-1 emerged from IGM-
            DP, which also produced the Prithvi,                                                                  latory by major powers beyond Chi-
                                                                                                                  na and Pakistan. In the current glob-
            Akash, Nag and Trishul missile sys-                                                                   al  environment,  where  two  active
            tems. Initially conceived by DRDO                                                                     conflicts  with  nuclear  dimensions
            as  a  technology  demonstrator  for                                                                  already exist, such a test could have
            re-entry vehicle validation, the early                                                                heightened tensions and potentially
            Agni used a solid-fuel first stage de-                                                                triggered  reciprocal  missile  devel-
            rived from the SLV-3 space launch   Note: SRBM stands for Short-Range Ballistic Missile (300 km to 1,000 km) and MRBM for   opment  or  testing  by  other  states,
            vehicle and a modified upper stage.              Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (1,000 to 3,000 km)   essentially  by  China  and  Pakistan.
                India  successfully  tested  the
            Agni  demonstrator  in  1989,  fol-  in  its  continued  evolution.  Reports   survivability, and ability to evade ad-  In the present context, the success-
                                                                                                                  ful  test  of  the  Agni-5  with  MIRV
            lowed by upgraded trials in 1992 and   suggest that Agni-6 is currently under   vanced missile defence systems.  capability serves as a clear signal of
            1994. After finalising re-entry stud-  development and may be approach-  It  appears  that  DRDO’s  ob-  India’s  credible  nuclear  deterrence
            ies,  DRDO  converted  the  system   ing the testing phase. This next-gen-  jective  is  to  ensure  that  the  Indian   posture.
            into the single-stage Agni-1 ballistic   eration  project  is  expected  further   missile system can evade the world’s
            missile. Development of this system   to enhance range, mobility and pay-  best missile defence systems, such as   Group Captain (Dr) Ajey Lele (Retd.)
            formally  began  in  1999,  with  suc-  load  flexibility.  Repeated  successful   Russia’s S-500, America’s THAAD,   is the Deputy Director General, MP-ID-
            cessful operational testing complet-  Agni-5 trials indicate that India has   and  China’s  HQ-19.  Agni-6  is  ex-  SA. Earlier, he was a Senior Fellow at
            ed in 2003. Table 1 summarises the   achieved  significant  progress  in  ad-  pected  to  carry  10  to  12  warheads.   the Manohar Parrikar Institute for De-
            major characteristics of India’s Agni   vanced seeker and guidance technol-  The use of MaRVs, advanced decoys   fence Studies and Analyses and a part
            missile  series.  The  service  arm  for   ogies required for ICBMs.  to deceive radars, and radar-absorb-  of its Centre on Strategic Technologies
            these systems is the Strategic Forces   India’s  next-generation  Agni-  ing  coatings  will  be  key  to  beating   Views expressed are of the author and
            Command (Army).                   6  is  expected  to  be  a  lighter,  more   the S-500, THAAD, and similar sys-  do not necessarily reflect the views of
                Presently,  DRDO  is  working   mobile,  and  rapidly  deployable  sys-  tems. A MaRV is a type of ballistic
            to expand India’s nuclear strike ca-  tem with a potential range exceeding   missile  payload  designed  to  change   the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the
                                                                                                                         Government of India.
            pabilities  well  beyond  its  immedi-  10,000  km,  with  estimates  ranging   its  flight  path  after  re-entering  the
            ate  neighbourhood.  The  successful   from  8,000  to  12,000  km.  The  mis-  Earth’s atmosphere. A MaRV’s abil-  The full version of this article first ap-
            integration  of  MIRV  capability  on   sile is also expected to integrate both   ity to change its trajectory enables it   peared in the Comments section of the
            the  Agni-5  is  not  the  conclusion  of   MIRV  and  Manoeuvrable  Re-entry   to evade enemy missile defence sys-  website (www.idsa.in) of Manohar Par-
            India’s  missile  development  pro-  Vehicle (MaRV) capabilities, signifi-  tems. India is yet to test the MaRV   rikar Institute for Defense Studies and
            gramme, but a significant landmark   cantly enhancing its strike flexibility,   technology.           Analyses, New Delhi, on May 13, 2026

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